The Apple AppStore has over 100,000 iPhone applications.  Verizon’s Droid is a a few months old and Google just launched the Nexus One.  Microsoft has Windows Mobile and the Palm has the hot new Palm Pre.  The current king of Mobile Business is the Blackberry (RIM),  but it is losing ground fast.  Apple, Microsoft, Google, Palm, Verizon & RIM all going   after the same market and that makes for great headlines.

The Hype

Articles are starting to appear talking about the mobile replacing desktop as a work environment.  For the most part, this is bunk; A symptom of someone looking for a headline, but not thinking.  When I see an interesting article about a controversial topic, I like to first look at the last 2-3 headlines by that author.  If last week they were talking about global warming, the week before about cyber-crime and this week about mobile technology replacing the desktop; I classify them as “reporter”.  Reporter does not equal expert.  While reporters are absolutely essential to get a pulse on minor variations on trends,  I prefer to seek the experts to get a deep understanding of a new technology.   Even better is to immerse yourself and get first-hand experience.  Most of the buzz today is reporter, not expert created.

Definitions

To better understand if/when/why mobile will or will not replace the desktop, definitions are in order:  Desktop refers to the hardware, be it PC, Mac, Linux, either desktop or laptop.  This desktop can be running any form of software including installed, Client-Server, SaaS and browser based.  Mobile is the generally understood concept of a smart-phone like a Blackberry or iPhone.

Mobile vs. Desktop

So will “mobile” business application replace the “desktop”?  Yes and No.  The first Hurtle for Mobile to replace Desktop is CPU & Memory. Over the next decade, mobile form factor devices will have the processor and memory of today’s desktops.  So throw out processing power as a differentiator.  Mobile will catch up.  In fact, most applications today, especially SaaS applications only take up a small amount of CPU and memory on the desktop.

What else constitutes a desktop environment?   Input and output devices.  This is the big one.  I personally have both Mac and PC setups, each with a bunch of big monitors. Besides the large monitors, I use full size keyboards, and a laser mouse.

My Mac & PC workstations

Big ideas need big work spaces.  When I first realized that my iPhone was actually a mobile computer, I tested the limits.  Doing basic operations like reading email works fine.  What about spreadsheets I thought?

Designing a spreadsheet on a mobile device is possible, but very, very inefficient.  I tried it and it’s infuriating.  However, using an already designed spreadsheet on mobile device is realistic.  Reading email; easy.  Writing email; possible, but not as easy as using a full size keyboard.

This is where I had my epiphany that would steer the mobile strategy for Broadlook.

Mobile Technology is an extension of and not a replacement for PC-based business applications.

Why?  Desktop business applications have evolved over the years to take advantage of everything possible.  Case in point, at Broadlook, we switched to the Microsoft Dynamics CRM.  The default setup did not fit our selling model, so we modified Dynamics to fit our business process.  Dynamics is a Platform as a Service (PaaS) environment; a base of CRM functionality which each business can build on.  Our modifications to Dynamics CRM included data points that most companies don’t have access to (unless they are Broadlook customers).  Simply put, the average screen was too small to get all the data on it that we needed.  We could have created a system where everything was accessible in a drill-down fashion (click, click, click).  However, this included too many clicks to be efficient.  I can’t stand having to click 3-4 times to get to data that should be there.  The answer: bigger monitors.  Standard at Broadlook, we now have 24 inch monitors with 1920×1200 resolution.  The things that most people have to click 2-3 extra times to get to their CRM, we have on the first screen.  Simple things like having all the contact info points in the initial search grid.

Broadlook’s Leads Screen in MS Dynamics CRM on a 24 inch monitor.  All info points are available so a sales rep can take action from the first screen.  A typical implementation of SalesForce.com or MS CRM would require you to click 2-3 times to get at all the information on this screen.

As a side note.  These monitors are about $250.  Picking up 50 of these monitors was many many more times cheaper than wasting the time of a sales rep in click-click hell.  In addition developing with the large monitors in mind is much more forgiving than having limited screen real estate and making a design decision that makes 1/2 the people happy and 1/2 ticked off.

How would this business process, which depends on “big hardware” translate to a 4 inch mobile screen?

It won’t.

No way, no how. This is why we won’t see CRM for mobile replacing CRM on the desktop/laptop.  I’ve seen a few mobile “stand-alone” CRM’s on both the sales and recruiting sides.  They are a joke.  An absolute productivity waste.  What works with mobile CRM is when it is used to enhance the desktop experience.  Salesforce has done a good job of it, as have several others.  If your mobile can access your CRM, you can look up a contact, review notes, or line up a few calls for when you are on the road or after hours.  Mobile CRM as a value add to your CRM is an absolute must-have.

What about applications like social networking?  LinkedIN is a good example.  LinkedIN for iPhone is great, I’m looking forward to when LinkedIN or Facebook adds a practical proximity alert to your social network.  That would be something that the desktop or even laptop would not be practical for.   This leads me into the areas that mobile will dominate and why.

For those existing business applications that have evolved on the desktop, mobile will add additional value.  However, for the new frontiers, areas that were birthed in mobile, those will be the areas where mobile can stand alone. It is the same concept which allowed desktop applications to evolve.  You develop to the potential of the environment.  CPU, memory, screen size, input devices, always on (yes/no), network connectivity, battery life.  All of these are the factors that effect Darwinism on both the desktop and mobile device.

Today, most of the successful mobile applications are consumer-based.   As of this writing, none of the top 25 apps in the iPhone AppStore were business apps.  Blackberry pundits:  only 2 of the top 25 for Blackberry were business apps.

So where does this leave us?

• For business applications that evolved on larger form factor systems such as CRM and  Spreadsheets, mobile will be a value-add, but not a replacement.  If someone is promising CRM on your mobile to replace your desktop, run like hell or carry a 12 year old with tiny fingers to type for you everywhere you go.
• New and currently undiscovered business applications that are born and evolve on the mobile will rule the mobile.

2010 is going to be a fantastic year for mobile! I am excited and personally committed to developing on mobile.

Caveats:  (1) When mobile becomes a conduit to work with outside peripherals such as an wall screens and video goggles, then mobile could replace the desktop, however, what is really being accomplished here is emulating the functions of a full form factor desktop & monitor. (2) Seamless voice recognition can get around the problems with small form factor keyboards.  I have not seen voice recognition that is worth it’s salt.  I tell my car “Radio Off” and it says “Please say the name of the street you want to navigate to”.

Today I stared on my iPhone, Blackberry, GPhone and Palm pre on my desk and ask myself  “what are these?”

Cell Phones, Mobile Devices or Mobile Computers?

My company, Broadlook is developing software for mobile devices and I needed to have all of them.  I’m also a gadget freak, so I enjoy having all of them. Perhaps the collection of them, together, was odd and put me into a bit of a trance.

“What are these?”, I asked myself again.

Cell phones and mobile devices were the first 2 that came to mind.  Then I glanced at a desktop computer under my desk.  “A little computer”, I thought to myself, then “a mobile computer”.

I looked at my laptop, back to the desktop and again to the cell phones on my desk. “They are all computers”.  I thought.  What is the difference?

Why are they not called mobile computers or pocket computers?  When I asked myself that question, I knew I was on to something.  It was something big.  I realized that the fact that most people call these fabulous devices “mobile devices” and not “mobile computers” is a hindrance to big thinking.  It’s a draw back to the nature of our culture, something that I will fight to the freeze*.

So I took one more look at the devices on my desk and decided to start thinking about them as “mobile computers.” The first thing I needed to get my mind around was how these mobile computers related to the desktops and laptops that are ubiquitous at a software company.

“What are they capable of?” I needed to do some research.  I needed facts.  So I started with the CPU of my mobile computer of choice, an iPhone 3GS.  How did it compare with my desktop or my laptop. Using my new favorite search engine  www.bing.com, I did a search for “iphone processor speed” to find out that the iPhone 3GS runs at about 624Mhz.

Next, I  did a search to find out when in the history of the PC desktop. Did it run at about the same speed?  Being a computer historian, I knew that speed was around the speed of a 486, so I did a search for “iphone speed 486 processor” and found several references to the iPhone being about the speed of a 486 desktop computer in 1995.  So 1995 is my baseline year. Looking at the CPU only would not be thorough, so I decided to compile some information on some of the other things that effect a computers performance as well as a few other attributes.

If you don’t like tech stuff, skip this next few sections and get right to the “Vision stuff” iPhone vs. 486 shootout:

Comparing a 486 desktop computer in 1995 to an iPhone 3GS today.  Today is mid 2009,  14 years beyond the 486.  14 years, remember that. Check out how the numbers match up.  I researched a several sources to find configurations for a new 486 in 1995.

• CPU:  The current processor in the iPhone 3GS running at 600Mhz is equivalent to an Intel 486 processor in mid 1995.
• Memory:  The iPhone 3GS has 256MB of memory or 16 times the 16MB that 486 had.
• Storage:   The iPhone 3GS has 16GB of storage,  32X the storage of the 500MB hard drive of the 486.
• Display:  The iPhone 320X480,   the 486 had XGA or 1024×768
• Network:  The iPhone can connect to modern WAN/LAN @ 100Mb, the 486 had 56kb modems. Additionally, the iPhone has bluetooth capabilities for a wireless data transfer rate of 1Mb/S.
• Software:  The iPhone has over 50,000 applications, the 486 had about 5000 commercial titles
• Software development:  You can create an iPhone application in a few days.  It could take weeks, months or years to create anything of substance for the 486
• Voice control:  iPhone, no problem for basic stuff.  486? Muhhahha ha.
• Price:  iPhone 3GS is $500,  ($200 if you get a cell phone plan).  The 486 was about $2000.

Shootout conclusion: Looking at CPU only, the iPhone is similar to the 486.  The 486 wins big on the display capabilities.  When looking at the big picture, the iPhone or any high end mobile device makes the 486 look like a toy.  Memory, storage and network speed all are large contributors to overall system performance.  Put it all together and it means that the iPhone would look like it was from another planet in 1995.

Technology backbone.  Now and near future:  Wireless data transfer

• USB 2.0 data rate 480 MB/sec  (now)
• USB 3.0 data rate 4.8 GB/sec  (soon)
• Sony “Transjet” technology   70 MB/sec  (now)   Drawback: only transmits 3cm
• Certified Wireless USB -  60MB/sec  (soon)  Transmits 3 meters

Exercise 1:  Can we use full size mouse and keyboards with our Mobile Computers?

• Yes.  Bluetooth works for monitors, keyboards and audio communication

Exercise 2:  Can we use full size monitors with our mobile devices

• Low end monitor:  1024×768 @ 60 frames/sec.   Requires 47MB/sec transfer rate.  (no compression).
• High end monitor: 1920×1200 @ 60 frames/sec. Requires 138MB/sec transfer rate  (no compression)
• Bluetooth 2.0 is a factor of 47X too slow to stream video over wireless.  Even Bluetooth 3.0 at 24Mb/s (3MB/s) is too slow for video unless it is really small and highly compressed.
• The upcoming “Certified Wireless USB” will work fine for video transmission with bandwidth to spare.

Vision of a mobile future

I wake up naturally.  My breathing changes and my iPhone 10GS senses the noise in the room and determines that I am awake.  The iPhone is sitting on a charging pad on my nightstand,  cords connected to devices is a thing of the past.  The full size wall screen in my bedroom silently turns on.  It is all powered by my iPhone. I had a great dream about flying and I want to record the feeling in my journal.  My wife is still sleeping so I opt out of dictation mode.  My iPhone presents me with 4 options that have been selected from my patterns at this time in the morning.  Check news,  review my schedule,  record a dream or plan a workout.  With a button press, I choose “record a dream.  The wall monitor turns into a simple word processor and the iPhone projects a laser keyboard on my bed.  My dream gets recorded and I start my day inspired.

Off to work.  The iPhone/Mobile computer on my belt.  I’m running low on hydrogen so I stop at the local refilling station.  As I drive up to the pump a large touch screen comes alive, connects with my iPhone and performs the financial transaction.  The only interaction from me would be my optional PIN code, but the touch screen verified my fingerprints, so it really is not needed.  In addition, my car communicated with my Mobile Computer.  I’m supporting a local business and it knows my car for the “free fill-up” if I after 10 fill ups.

My to-do list on my Jeep’s monitor, tells me the refrigerator at the house, told my iPhone that I should pick up Milk today.  However, 1/2 way to my office, the task is checked off, as my wife picked up the milk already her way back from the gym  (Powered by a private family social network), all interconnected.    3/4 the way to my office, the computer at my children’s school let me know that they checked into class.  There are 100 other things that I could be notified about this morning, but my preferences screen out the noise and keep my updated on what is important to me.  In fact, my phone is already communicating with my admin’s phone.  I’m running late, schedules need to be adjusted.

At work:  I sit down at my desk.  There is no computer, just interface devices.  Keyboard, mouse, and yes, a kick-ass monitor.  No desktop. The mobile device IS my computer.   Wherever I go in the facility,  I can access any screen that I have rights to.  My favorite is the picnic table outside with an embedded surface computer.

Off to the airport.  On the drive, I am confirmed and checked in.  My ETA to arrive, park, get to the terminal, and get on the flight are all displayed (my preferences).  I’ve got plenty of time.  The car and phone communicate with my wife’s and my admin’s phone.  “Donato did not forget to go to the airport” it lets them know.  As is my pattern, I’m given a 1-button option to call my children.  They are in class, so I record a “see you when Daddy gets back video”.   I’m going to Texas.  My iPhone gives my children’s mobile computers all sorts of interesting facts about where Dad is going.  Upon my return, I’m given a lesson by my oldest about the Alamo.

At the airport:  Every terminal is a smart terminal. Touch sensitive, connected to my iPhone.  My credit card credentials are in the phone.  If someone else has my Phone, it won’t work, since it is a touch screen, it continually verified my fingerprints to make sure that it is me.  My children’s allowance limit is set on their mobile as well.  I can track what they are buying.  I will know what they are watching, and I can be an informed parent.  As they grow into adults, they will gain the rights and privacy of an adult.

In the mobile future, everything is permission based.  Everyone has the right to privacy and to opt out.  The level of opt is by choice.

In the airplane:  No more laptops.  Instead, smart screens on the backs of the seats that face you.  200 passengers minus 15 pound laptop + cases, the plane is 3000 pounds lighter.

On the ground:  The Hilton knows that I am coming in.  My phone tells me the shuttle is running 10 minutes behind.

With more information and fewer unknowns, traveling is less stressful.

At the Hotel:  I am checked in as soon as I walk through the doors at the Hilton.  I don’t have to go to the front desk; I like carrying my own luggage. Room number 2120, close to the elevator, no smoking room, breakfast options are presented.  I choose Eggs Benedict.   Hmmm,  a 30 minute workout gets added to my schedule to burn the extra calories.  I’m given the option of Eggs Benedict and workout OR granola and no workout.  I choose the Eggs Benedict. Wake up call is scheduled 30 minutes early and a lane in the pool is reserved for me.

At the conference:  GPS inside my mobile shows me where everything is.  No running last minute to find out where I am speaking.  Thai restaurant choices and reviews of each are presented for my review.  The conference social network connects me with 3 other people that were craving Thai.  Reservations are made and I meet 3 new people.   Never eat alone.

Coming home:  I’m updated on the soccer game I missed.  In fact, I watch the entire video on the plane.  In flight video conferencing is an option, should I choose to talk to my family…while in flight.  Technology, done right, improves the human condition.

All the things that I’ve talked about are possible today.  No kidding.  The only thing that is lacking is the infrastructure and the middleware, and the desire.  The software (middleware) is being created now.  Airports already have the big monitors, the next generation needs to be smart terminals for our mobiles.

How it will happen.

Each niche piece of software will be created by someone.  It will solve a problem in arriving at the airport, getting a taxi, ordering breakfast, etc.  Private, permission-based social networks will have a huge opportunity to play in the mobile future.  They will replace the Facebooks, MySpaces, and LinkedINs.  The small and niche always chip away and kills the big, slow and generic.  Look at what is happening to Job Boards today. Most of the companies making these mobile apps will NOT make much money.  Next, consolidation of technology will occur. Some will happen with mergers & acquisitions. Companies in India and China will not innovate, but simply copy what 100′s of smaller firms are doing.  Right now, anyone can make a few bucks on a mobile app.  That will change.  Most of these micro apps have nothing truly unique to patent.  The best a small operator can do is either become very popular or truly innovate to protect themselves.   The best protected apps are ones like Contact Capture for the Blackberry and iPhone.  These apps are extremely simple, but are powered by a back end services that have years of R&D and robust technology.

Soooo much opportunity for those that understand that this will happen and is happening now.  The mobile future is exciting.  Get on or get left behind.

*yes the freeze, not death, I intend on being frozen.